The iPhone 17 is doomed because everyone says it isn’t
Casual readers of this column may incorrectly assume that this pointed observer only accepts silly forecasts about iPhone production cuts. It’s a hurtful stereotype of mythical beasts with heads shaped like classic Macs, and you should be ashamed of yourself. Please take an autonomous sensitivity training course.
Incredible.
Sure, Macalope has done a lot over the years, but that’s largely because there have simply been so many ludicrously incorrect warnings about the doom inherent in the sort of standard production cuts that happen every year after Apple heads to its fall event.
It’s a supply-side problem, not a demand-side problem.
Take, for example, the mad rush to declare the iPhone X a colossal failure, an event on the level of a French farce, with doors opening and closing and things spiraling wildly out of control. Several analysts had their clothing caught in the closed door as they ran around, remaining in their panties.
Macalope remembers it anyway.
What actually happened was that Nikkei reported that Apple cut iPhone X orders from 40 million to 20 million units, which only makes sense if you don’t understand the full numbers. Apple only sold a total of 50 million iPhones in the same quarter the previous year, so it was a hot mess to think that the company thought it would sell 40 million iPhone Xs on its own. It was later reported that Apple actually thought it would sell 45 to 50 million, so the cut was even bigger. In the end, it turned out that iPhone sales for the quarter were great, with the iPhone X being the top seller.
Despite this, the iPhone production obsession syndrome doesn’t hold a candle to the estimation of Evah, Macalope’s historically popular analyst, which isn’t really even about the iPhone (and no, Macalope will No stop bringing it up because it’s never funny). In 2011, Pyramid Research analyst conducted a in bold prediction: Windows Phone will beat Android in 2013, analyst explains.
That – Macalope cannot stress this enough –didn’t happen. Not only that No it happened negatively because Windows Phone was discontinued and Android continued to ship the most units.
You’ll be surprised to learn that Pyramid Research is no longer a thing and that the analyst who predicted it is now on the cusp of AI.
It didn’t surprise me. Macalope meant “not surprised”. The thing is, take it as the analysts’ numbers are, shall we say, pretty squishy. Like a Halloween pumpkin in December. Somewhere warm.
Which brings us to this week’s news: iPhone 17 demand sees Apple nearly catch Samsung, says IDC.
IDG
According to early iPhone 17 estimates, the lower-end models have done quite well with a big question mark over the iPhone 17 Air.
So let’s go back to Macalope’s previous point because, as John Gruber notes, these are just guesses. They may be right, and they probably are in the right direction. But they could be wrong. So there is no need for any irrational exo-
“Apple shares hit new all-time high as iPhone 17 sales surge”
Is no one listening?
Why does Macalope bother to write these things?
Well, sure, you have to bet on the available information, and if the information says that iPhone sales are increasing, why not buy? Well… sigh. Macalope assumes it is.
It’s just that we covered Apple’s rumors about… (oh, god, it was that long?)… for for a while nowMacalope has personally seen too many bad estimates from analysts to take them seriously. Sure, some analysts are better than others, and maybe the preponderance of news indicates something real…
…or maybe it’s a Windows Phone trumps Android kind of situation.
(It’s still funny.)